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Rosamond Naylor

William Wrigley Professor, Senior Fellow at the Woods Institute for the Environment and at the Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and Professor, by courtesy, of Economics

Bio
I am the Director of the Center on Food Security and the Environment and the William Wrigley Professor in Earth System Science. I am an economist by training and work on a wide range of interdisciplinary research projects.
Administrative Appointments: 
Director of Studies, Goldman Interschool Honors Program in Environmental Science, Technology, and Policy, Stanford (1992 - Present)
Julie Wrigley Senior Fellow, Center for Environmental Science and Policy, Stanford University (2000 - 2007)
Associate Professor by courtesy, Department of Economics, Stanford University (2000 - Present)
Director, Center in Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University (2005 - Present)
William Wrigley Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies & Stanford Woods Institute for the Environment (2007 - 2014)
Professor, Environmental Earth Systems Science, Stanford University (2009 - Present)
William Wrigley Professor, School of Earth Sciences (2014 - Present)
Honors and Awards: 
McNamara Post-doc Fellowship, The World Bank (1990 - 1991)
Pew Fellow in Environment and Conservation, . (1994)
Aldo Leopold Leadership Fellow, . (1999 - Present)
Professional Organizations: 
Science Advisor, United Nations' Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon initiative on Sustainable Development (2013 - Present)
Trustee, The Nature Conservancy, California Chapter (2012 - Present)
Associate Editor, Journal on Food Security (2012 - Present)
Editorial Board, Global Food Security (2012 - Present)
Member, Search Committee for Director of Freeman Spogli Institute, Stanford University (2012 - 2013)
Member, Scientific Board of the Beijer Institute, Stockholm (2011 - Present)
Member, Advisory Panel for the African Human Development Report at UNDP (United Nations Development Program) (2011 - Present)
Member, U.S. National Committee for the Pacific Science Association, National Academy of Sciences (2010 - 2011)
Member, Oversight Committee, International Relations Program, Stanford University (2010 - Present)
Member, Faculty Advisory Council, The Bill Lane Center for the American West, Stanford University (2009 - Present)
Editorial Board, Aquaculture Environment Interactions (2009 - Present)
Member of the Steering Committee, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies, Stanford University (2008 - Present)
Member, Executive Committee, Earth Systems Science Program, Stanford University (2008 - Present)
Member, Advisory Committee, E-IPER, Stanford University (2008 - Present)
Editorial Board, Environmental Research Letters (2007 - 2011)
Editorial Board, Reviews in Aquaculture (2007 - 2011)
Member of the Advisory Board, Pew Fellows Program in Marine Science (2007 - 2010)
Judge, Risser Environmental Journalism Prize for the American West (2006 - 2006)
Environmental Ventures Program, Woods Institute of the Environment, Stanford University (2006 - 2009)
Member, Faculty Steering Committee, International Policy Studies Program, Stanford University (2006 - Present)
Member, Selection Committee, Aldo Leopold Leadership Program (2005 - 2009)
Member, Scientific Advisory Board, COMPASS (Communication Partnership for Science and the Sea) (2005 - 2009)
Co-Chair, Environmental Ventures Program, Woods Institute of the Environment, Stanford University (2004 - 2006)
Editorial Board, Annual Review of Environment and Resources (2004 - 2008)
Member, NRC Committee on “Alaska Yukan Salmon: Research and Restoration Priorities”. National Academy of Sciences (2003 - 2005)
Member, Oversight Committee for the Collaborative Crop Improvement Program, McKnight Foundation (1998 - 2009)
Undergraduate Advisor, International Relations Program, Stanford University (1996 - Present)
Undergraduate Advisor, Human Biology Program, Stanford University (1996 - Present)
Education: 
PhD, Food Research Institute, Stanford University, Applied Economics (1989)
MSc, London School of Economics, Economics (1981)
MA, University of Colorado Boulder, Economics and Environmental Conservation (1980)
Research & Scholarship
Current Research Interests: 
Research Activities:
My research focuses on the environmental and equity dimensions of intensive food production systems, and the food security dimensions of low-input systems. I have been involved in a number of field-level research projects around the world and have published widely on issues related to climate impacts on agriculture, distributed irrigation systems for diversified cropping, nutrient use and loss in agriculture, biotechnology, aquaculture and livestock production, biofuels development, food price volatility, and food policy analysis.

Teaching Activities:
I teach courses on the world food economy, food and security, aquaculture science and policy, human society and environmental change, and food-water-health linkages. These courses are offered to graduate and undergraduate students through the departments of Earth System Science, Economics, History, and International Relations.

Professional Activities:
William Wrigley Professor of Earth Science (2015 - Present); Professor in Earth System Science (2009-present); Director, Stanford Center on Food Security and the Environment (2005-present); Associate Professor of Economics by courtesy (2000-present); William Wrigley Senior Fellow, Freeman Spogli Institute for International Studies and the Woods Institute for the Environment (2007-2015); Trustee, The Nature Conservancy CA program (2012-present); Member of the Scientific Advisory Board for the Beijer Institute for Ecological Economics in Stockholm (2011-present), for the Aspen Global Change Institute (2011-present), and for the Aldo Leopold Leadership Program (2012-present); Aldo Leopold Leadership Fellow in Environmental Science and Public Policy (1999); Pew Fellow in Conservation and the Environment (1994). Associate Editor for the Journal on Food Security (2012-present). Editorial board member for Aquaculture-Environment Interactions (2009-present) and Global Food Security (2012-present).
Projects: 
Solar Market Gardens as a Tool for Rural Development, Stanford University (7/1/2010 - Present)
Title: 
Solar Market Gardens as a Tool for Rural Development
Detail: 

Since 2007, FSE has been evaluating the livelihood and environmental impacts of an effort led by a US-based NGO, the Solar Electric Light Fund (SELF), to use solar arrays to power irrigation pumps for growing high-valued crops (solar market gardens) in the dry season in Northern Benin. We found that photovoltaic technology yields substantial (and significant) benefits in the form of household income and nutritional intake, and is cost-competitive in the medium term, especially where fuel supplies are unreliable. See "An Alternative Development Model: Assessing solar electrification for income generation in Benin" for further information about this project.

Photovoltaic technology yields substantial (and significant) benefits in the form of household income and nutritional intake, and is cost-competitive in the medium term, especially where fuel supplies are unreliable.

While there will be hurdles to overcome in taking such a project to scale, we believe that this technology can play a significant role in augmenting regional food security and economic development in the Sudano-Sahel. Our strategy is to provide very careful evaluation of the solar market garden system using a randomized, control-study approach at each phase of scale up.

In our view, it is critical that investments in this system pay off in the long run for external donors, farmer groups, and private farmers adopting the technology. We would like to see the "pay off" include more than the concept of private profitability; nutritional improvements, equity between and among households, marketing expansion, and educational impacts are all included in our scope of study.

In an effort to scale up this technology, FSE is planning to evaluate and monitor solar market gardens in a dozen or so new villages in Northern Benin. The overall goal in this phase of scale-up is to create a regional market and learning center for the technology and farm products that can be replicated in other areas of West Africa.

Location

Benin

Rural Health & Development at the Food-Water Nexus, Stanford University (July 1, 2011 - Present)
Title: 
Rural Health & Development at the Food-Water Nexus
Detail: 

More than two-thirds of the population in Africa must leave their home to fetch water for drinking and domestic use. It is estimated that some 40 billion hours of labor each year are spent hauling water, a responsibility often borne by women and children. Cutting the walking time to a water source by just 15 minutes can reduce under-five mortality of children by 11 percent, and slash the prevalence of nutrition-depleting diarrhea by 41 percent.

Water resources management, smallholder food production, poverty, and infectious disease are inextricably connected in the world's poorest regions. In sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) limited access to water for both productive and domestic uses increases vulnerability to infectious diseases, the leading causes of morbidity and mortality in SSA. Within these complex linkages, identifying intervention points and constructive policy responses requires an understanding of how and the extent to which freshwater supplies and nutrition jointly influences health outcomes. The proposed project, which involves both place-based empirical research and analysis of secondary data, will explore these water-nutrition-health interconnections. It will identify the extent which, and potential causal mechanisms by which, access to domestic and productive water supplies and associated nutritional benefits affect the progression of both HIV and TB among adults living in rural African households.

Location

Kenya

Collaborators

  • Jenna Davis, Associate Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering and Senior Fellow at the Woods Institute for the Environment, Stanford University
  • Glwadys Aymone Gbetibouo, Postdoctoral Research fellow, Environmental Earth System Science, School of Earth Sciences
  • Eran Bendavid, Assistant Professor, Stanford University
  • L. Katrina ole-MoiYoi, Ph.D. Student in Environment and Resources, admitted Autumn 2011, School of Earth Sciences

For More Information:

Aquaculture in China and its Role in Global Markets and Resources, Stanford University (9/1/2012 - August 31, 2014)
Title: 
Aquaculture in China and its Role in Global Markets and Resources
Detail: 

Seafood plays a critical role in global food security and protein intake. The global supply of seafood increasingly comes from aquaculture - the farming of fish, shellfish, and aquatic plants. China is the dominant leader in this field, supplying about two-thirds of global aquaculture production. China also consumes an estimated one-third of global aquaculture output, a figure that is expected to increase as the country proceeds along its developmental trajectory.

This project builds on our recent field surveys in China (supported previously by the Packard Foundation), with two aims:

1) to finalize our analysis and publish peer-reviewed papers on China’s role in global aquaculture, seafood trade, and feed use; and

2) to convene researchers from around the world to advance the science around Chinese aquaculture from a food security perspective.

The anticipated output will be a set of unique and high profile papers on China’s rising role in this important area of global food production, trade, and food security.

Location

China

Collaborators

For More Information:

Globalization, Trade, and the Environment: The case of Brazil, Stanford University
Title: 
Globalization, Trade, and the Environment: The case of Brazil
Detail: 

Soybean production has become a significant force for economic development in Brazil, but has come at the cost of expansion into non-protected forests in the Amazon and native savanna in the Cerrado. Over the past fifty years, production has increased from 26 million to 260 million tons. Area planted to soybeans has increased from roughly 1 million hectares in 1970 to more than 23 million hectares in 2010, second only to the United States.

For more than three decades, deforestation in the Amazon has been driven by the expansion of pasturelands for cattle production. Pasture area also expanded rapidly because soils found throughout much of the region are poor in nutrients following forest slash and burn, and crop production cannot be maintained in the face of degradation of soils and lost vegetation productivity. In the late 1990s, multi-national corporations such as Cargill began investing in infrastructure throughout the south-central Amazon. New river ports, fertilizer and mechanization have fueled explosive growth in the crop agricultural sector, especially for soybeans. For example, in the State of Mato Grosso, soybean agriculture has increased at a rate of 1,000 to 2,000 km2 per year since 2000, making it the fastest growing form of land use regionally. Much of this deforestation is now being driven directly by conversion to soybean fields, the soy oil and meal from which are being used largely by the growing industrial livestock sector in Brazil, China, India, and other countries around the world.

In the same period that soy agriculture has boomed in the Brazilian Amazon, the power of satellite monitoring technology has also gone through a revolution. Since 2000, it has been possible to monitor not only rates of deforestation on a weekly basis (it was done annually prior to 2000), but also to differentiate between forest areas cleared for cattle pasture or crop agriculture. In addition, selective timber harvests of intact forests - a geographic precursor to deforestation - can now be monitored annually. Using the NASA Terra, Landsat 7 and Earth Observing-1 satellite sensors, it is now possible to measure the location and extent of pasture, cropland and timber harvesting across the entire Amazon. These measurements are vital to understanding not only the dynamics of land-use change in a large and poorly regulated region of Brazil, but also the impacts of these changes on ecosystem function. We will use seed funds from this project grant to advance the satellite-based measurements of soybean expansion in the Amazon.

While these satellite-based measurements can now tell us the extent and rate of change, we also require on-the-ground measurements to evaluate the consequences of these changes. There has been substantial research on the biogeochemical and climatic consequences of forest conversion to pasture in Amazonia, but less ecosystem-level research on the now-dominant soybean system and its consequences. These consequences are likely to include changes in soils and soil fertility, fluxes of trace gases that function as greenhouse gases or as precursors to photochemical smog, and runoff of nutrients and sediments to aquatic systems. In addition, the energy requirements of the intensive agricultural system can themselves drive deforestation for fuel - and the nutrients mobilized in agricultural products move in international trade and can cause water and air pollution where they are used. We will work with Professor Luiz Martinelli (University of Sao Paulo) and his students to begin the development of integrated nutrient budgets for the forest to soybean conversion, and its ancillary effects.

Location

Brazil

Collaborators

  • Peter Vitousek, Clifford G. Morrison Professor in Population and Resource Studies, Senior Fellow at the Woods Institute for the Environment and Professor, by courtesy, of Environmental Earth System Sciences, Stanford University

For More Information:

Lead Contaminated Topsoil and Food in Rural Bangladesh, Stanford University (July 1, 2013 - Present)
Title: 
Lead Contaminated Topsoil and Food in Rural Bangladesh
Detail: 

Human exposure to lead in the environment causes irreversible impairment of intellectual function. In Bangladesh, where some rural residents have unexpectedly high levels of lead in their blood, the source is proving difficult to pinpoint. This project will evaluate the severity of lead poisoning in rural Bangladesh and identify the pathway of exposure to help develop focused prevention strategies. This study is designed to provide important evidence to support policy responses that reduce lead from the environment, not only in Bangladesh but also in other regions where lead contamination is a known risk to health and development.

Location

Bangladesh

Collaborators

  • Stephen Luby, Professor of Medicine (Infectious Diseases) and Senior Fellow at the Woods Institute and the Freeman Spogli Institute, Stanford University

For More Information:

Climate Variability and Global Food Security, Stanford University (September 1, 2013 - Present)
Title: 
Climate Variability and Global Food Security
Detail: 

FSE and the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL) in Paris have joined together to foster undergraduate and PhD training and research on the effects of climate variability on wheat markets. This includes ongoing interaction with the Stanford-France student body in Paris via classes and field visits.

Location

France

The Importance of Marine Fisheries and Ecosystems for Food In China, Stanford University (September 1, 2013 - Present)
Title: 
The Importance of Marine Fisheries and Ecosystems for Food In China
Detail: 

Given China’s demographic changes, evolving nutritional requirements, and dominant role in global fisheries, the key question is whether marine ecosystems can be managed adequately to support the country’s future vision for domestic food security. The symposium will be directed toward research on the provision of wild fish for direct human consumption and for animal feeds. Research on China’s aquaculture sector will also be featured; this component of the symposium will focus on the ability of aquaculture to satisfy the country’s rising seafood demand (potentially taking pressure off wild fisheries) and on the use of wild fish in aquaculture feeds (potentially increasing pressure on wild fisheries).

Location

China

Collaborators

For More Information:

Teaching
Courses Taught: 
Academic Year: 
2017-18
Courses: 
Food and security
EARTHSYS 61Q, ESS 61Q, INTNLREL 61Q (Aut)
Human Society and Environmental Change
EARTHSYS 112, EARTHSYS 212, ESS 112, HISTORY 103D (Aut)
Independent Study Courses: 
Directed Individual Study in Earth Systems
EARTHSYS 297 (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum)
Directed Reading
ECON 139D (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum)
Directed Reading
ECON 239D (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum)
Directed Reading in Environment and Resources
ENVRES 398 (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum)
Directed Research
EARTHSYS 250 (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum)
Directed Research in Environment and Resources
ENVRES 399 (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum)
Graduate Research
ESS 400 (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum)
Honors Program in Earth Systems
EARTHSYS 199 (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum)
Honors Thesis Research
ECON 199D (Aut, Win, Spr)
Internship
EARTHSYS 260 (Sum)
Practical Training
ECON 299 (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum)
Academic Year: 
2016-17
Courses: 
Human Society and Environmental Change
EARTHSYS 112, ESS 112, HISTORY 103D (Aut)
World Food Economy
EARTHSYS 106, EARTHSYS 206, ECON 106, ESS 106, ESS 206 (Spr)
Independent Study Courses: 
Directed Individual Study in Earth Systems
EARTHSYS 297 (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum)
Directed Reading
ECON 139D (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum)
Directed Reading
ECON 239D (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum)
Directed Reading in Environment and Resources
ENVRES 398 (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum)
Directed Research
EARTHSYS 250 (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum)
Directed Research in Environment and Resources
ENVRES 399 (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum)
Graduate Research
ESS 400 (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum)
Honors Program in Earth Systems
EARTHSYS 199 (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum)
Honors Thesis Research
ECON 199D (Aut, Win, Spr)
Internship
EARTHSYS 260 (Sum)
Practical Training
ECON 299 (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum)
Academic Year: 
2015-16
Courses: 
Food and security
EARTHSYS 61Q, ESS 61Q, INTNLREL 61Q (Aut)
Human Society and Environmental Change
EARTHSYS 112, ESS 112, HISTORY 103D (Aut)
World Food Economy
EARTHSYS 106, ECON 106, ESS 106 (Spr)
Independent Study Courses: 
Directed Individual Study in Earth Systems
EARTHSYS 297 (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum)
Directed Reading
ECON 139D (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum)
Directed Reading
ECON 239D (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum)
Directed Reading in Environment and Resources
ENVRES 398 (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum)
Directed Research
EARTHSYS 250 (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum)
Directed Research in Environment and Resources
ENVRES 399 (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum)
Graduate Research
ESS 400 (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum)
Honors Program in Earth Systems
EARTHSYS 199 (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum)
Honors Thesis Research
ECON 199D (Aut, Win, Spr)
Internship
EARTHSYS 260 (Sum)
Ph.D. Qualifying Tutorial
ENVRES 410 (Aut, Win, Sum)
Practical Training
ECON 299 (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum)
Academic Year: 
2014-15
Courses: 
Human Society and Environmental Change
EARTHSYS 112, EESS 112, HISTORY 103D (Win)
The Evolving Sphere of Food Security
EARTHSYS 168, EARTHSYS 268 (Win)
World Food Economy
EARTHSYS 106, ECON 106, EESS 106 (Spr)
Independent Study Courses: 
Directed Individual Study in Earth Systems
EARTHSYS 297 (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum)
Directed Reading
ECON 139D (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum)
Directed Reading
ECON 239D (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum)
Directed Research
EARTHSYS 250 (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum)
Directed Research in Environment and Resources
ENVRES 399 (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum)
Graduate Research
EESS 400 (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum)
Honors Program in Earth Systems
EARTHSYS 199 (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum)
Honors Thesis Research
ECON 199D (Aut, Win, Spr)
Internship
EARTHSYS 260 (Sum)
Ph.D. Qualifying Tutorial
ENVRES 410 (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum)
Practical Training
ECON 299 (Aut, Win, Spr, Sum)
Advisees: 
Postdoctoral Advisees: 
Publications
China's aquaculture and the world's wild fisheries SCIENCE Cao, L., Naylor, R., Henriksson, P., Leadbitter, D., Metian, M., Troell, M., Zhang, W. 2015; 347 (6218): 133-135
A Global Perspective on Food Systems Journal of Agriculture, Food Systems and Community Development Naylor, R. L. 2015; 5 (2): 15-18
Does aquaculture add resilience to the global food system? PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Troell, M., Naylor, R. L., Metian, M., Beveridge, M., Tyedmers, P. H., Folke, C., Arrow, K. J., Barrett, S., Crepin, A., Ehrlich, P. R., Gren, A., Kautsky, N., Levin, S. A., Nyborg, K., Osterblom, H., Polasky, S., Scheffer, M., Walker, B. H., Xepapadeas, T., de Zeeuw, A. 2014; 111 (37): 13257-13263
COMMENTARY: Climate engineering reconsidered NATURE CLIMATE CHANGE Barrett, S., Lenton, T. M., Millner, A., Tavoni, A., Carpenter, S., Anderies, J. M., Chapin, F. S., Crepin, A., Daily, G., Ehrlich, P., Folke, C., Galaz, V., Hughes, T., Kautsky, N., Lambin, E. F., Naylor, R., Nyborg, K., Polasky, S., Scheffer, M., Wilen, J., Xepapadeas, A., de Zeeuw, A. 2014; 4 (7): 527-529
The Evolving Sphere of Food Security edited by Naylor, R. L. Oxford University Press. 2014
Frontiers in Food Policy: Perspectives on sub-Saharan Africa edited by Falcon, W. P., Naylor, R. L. Center on Food Security and the Environment. 2014
The new economic geography of land use change: Supply chain configurations and land use in the Brazilian Amazon LAND USE POLICY Garrett, R. D., Lambin, E. F., Naylor, R. L. 2013; 34: 265-275
Land institutions and supply chain configurations as determinants of soybean planted area and yields in Brazil LAND USE POLICY Garrett, R. D., Lambin, E. F., Naylor, R. L. 2013; 31: 385-396
Feed and fishmeal use in the production of tilapia and carps in China Aquaculture Chiu, A., Li, L., Guo, S., Bai, J., Fedor, C., Naylor, R. L. 2013; 414-415: 127-134
The case for distributed irrigation as a development priority in sub-Saharan Africa Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences Burney, J. a., Naylo, R. L., Postel, S. L. 2013; 110 (31): 12513-12517

View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.1203597110

Smallholder Irrigation as a Poverty Alleviation Tool in Sub-Saharan Africa WORLD DEVELOPMENT Burney, J. A., Naylor, R. L. 2012; 40 (1): 110-123
Searching for Solutions in Aquaculture: Charting a Sustainable Course Annual Review of Environment and Resources, 2012 Klinger, D., Naylor, R. L. 2012
Biofuels, rural development, and the changing nature of agricultural demand Global Food Policy and Food Security Naylor, R. L. Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University. 2012
Numerical modeling of aquaculture dissolved waste transport in a coastal embayment ENVIRONMENTAL FLUID MECHANICS Venayagamoorthy, S. K., Ku, H., Fringer, O. B., Chiu, A., Naylor, R. L., Koseff, J. R. 2011; 11 (4): 329-352
Sugar and ethanol production as a rural development strategy in Brazil: Evidence from the state of Sao Paulo AGRICULTURAL SYSTEMS Martinelli, L. A., Garrett, R., Ferraz, S., Naylor, R. 2011; 104 (5): 419-428
Expanding the boundaries of agricultural development FOOD SECURITY Naylor, R. 2011; 3 (2): 233-251
Lessons Learned Seeds of Sustainability: Lessons from the Birthplace of the Green Revolution in Agriculture Matson, P., Naylor, R., Ortiz-Monasterio, I. edited by Matson, P. A. Island Press. 2011
The global costs of American ethanol The American Interest Naylor, R. L., Falcon, W. P. 2011; VII (2)
The Yaqui Valley’s agricultural transition to a more open economy Seeds of Sustainability: Lessons from the Birthplace of the Green Revolution in Agriculture Naylor, R., Falcon, W. edited by Matson, P. A. Island Press. 2011
Looking for win-wins in intensive agriculture Seeds of Sustainability: Lessons from the Birthplace of the Green Revolution in Agriculture Matson, P., Naylor, R., Ortiz-Monasterio, I. edited by Matson, P. A. Island Press. 2011
Agriculture in Brazil: impacts, costs, and opportunities for a sustainable future CURRENT OPINION IN ENVIRONMENTAL SUSTAINABILITY Martinelli, L. A., Naylor, R., Vitousek, P. M., Moutinho, P. 2010; 2 (5-6): 431-438
Downscaling Indonesian precipitation using large-scale meteorological fields INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY Vimont, D. J., Battisti, D. S., Naylor, R. L. 2010; 30 (11): 1706-1722

View details for DOI 10.1002/joc.2010

View details for Web of Science ID 000282306000009

ROSAMOND NAYLOR FEEDING EVERYONE SMITHSONIAN Bensen, A., Naylor, R. 2010; 41 (4): 72-73
Ecosystem stewardship: sustainability strategies for a rapidly changing planet TRENDS IN ECOLOGY & EVOLUTION Chapin, F. S., Carpenter, S. R., Kofinas, G. P., Folke, C., Abel, N., Clark, W. C., Olsson, P., Smith, D. M., Walker, B., Young, O. R., Berkes, F., Biggs, R., Grove, J. M., Naylor, R. L., Pinkerton, E., Steffen, W., Swanson, F. J. 2010; 25 (4): 241-249

Abstract

Ecosystem stewardship is an action-oriented framework intended to foster the social-ecological sustainability of a rapidly changing planet. Recent developments identify three strategies that make optimal use of current understanding in an environment of inevitable uncertainty and abrupt change: reducing the magnitude of, and exposure and sensitivity to, known stresses; focusing on proactive policies that shape change; and avoiding or escaping unsustainable social-ecological traps. As we discuss here, all social-ecological systems are vulnerable to recent and projected changes but have sources of adaptive capacity and resilience that can sustain ecosystem services and human well-being through active ecosystem stewardship.

View details for DOI 10.1016/j.tree.2009.10.008

View details for Web of Science ID 000276705600009

View details for PubMedID 19923035

Solar-powered drip irrigation enhances food security in the Sudano-Sahel PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Burney, J., Woltering, L., Burke, M., Naylor, R., Pasternak, D. 2010; 107 (5): 1848-1853

Abstract

Meeting the food needs of Africa's growing population over the next half-century will require technologies that significantly improve rural livelihoods at minimal environmental cost. These technologies will likely be distinct from those of the Green Revolution, which had relatively little impact in sub-Saharan Africa; consequently, few such interventions have been rigorously evaluated. This paper analyzes solar-powered drip irrigation as a strategy for enhancing food security in the rural Sudano-Sahel region of West Africa. Using a matched-pair comparison of villages in northern Benin (two treatment villages, two comparison villages), and household survey and field-level data through the first year of harvest in those villages, we find that solar-powered drip irrigation significantly augments both household income and nutritional intake, particularly during the dry season, and is cost effective compared to alternative technologies.

View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.0909678107

View details for Web of Science ID 000274296300011

View details for PubMedID 20080616

Impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation events on China's rice production JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHICAL SCIENCES Deng Xiangzheng, X. Z., Huang Jikun, J. K., Qiao Fangbin, F. B., Naylor, R. L., Falcon, W. P., Burke, M., Rozelle, S., Battisti, D. 2010; 20 (1): 3-16
Environmentally responsible aquaculture: California leads the way Los Angeles Times (editorial) Naylor, R. L., Leonard, G. H. 2010; February 15
Impacts of El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events on the world rice market Program on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University Huang, J., Yang, J., Rozelle, S., Naylor, R., Falcon, W., Battisti, D. 2010
Food security in an era of economic volatility Population and Development Review Naylor, R., Falcon, W. 2010; 36 (4)
People, Land Use, and Environment in the Yaqui Valley, Sonora Mexico Population, Land Use, Environment: Research Directions Matson, P., Luers, A., Seto, K., Naylor, R. edited by Entwisle, B., Stern, P. C. National Academies Press. 2010
Feeding aquaculture in an era of finite resources (vol 106, 15103, 2009) PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Naylor, R. L., Hardy, R. W., Bureau, D. P., Chiu, A., Elliott, M., Farrell, A. P., Forster, I., Gatlin, D. M., Goldburg, R. J., Hua, K., Nichols, P. D. 2009; 106 (42): 18040-18040
Feeding aquaculture in an era of finite resources PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Naylor, R. L., Hardy, R. W., Bureau, D. P., Chiu, A., Elliott, M., Farrell, A. P., Forster, I., Gatlin, D. M., Goldburg, R. J., Hua, K., Nichols, P. D. 2009; 106 (36): 15103-15110

Abstract

Aquaculture's pressure on forage fisheries remains hotly contested. This article reviews trends in fishmeal and fish oil use in industrial aquafeeds, showing reduced inclusion rates but greater total use associated with increased aquaculture production and demand for fish high in long-chain omega-3 oils. The ratio of wild fisheries inputs to farmed fish output has fallen to 0.63 for the aquaculture sector as a whole but remains as high as 5.0 for Atlantic salmon. Various plant- and animal-based alternatives are now used or available for industrial aquafeeds, depending on relative prices and consumer acceptance, and the outlook for single-cell organisms to replace fish oil is promising. With appropriate economic and regulatory incentives, the transition toward alternative feedstuffs could accelerate, paving the way for a consensus that aquaculture is aiding the ocean, not depleting it.

View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.0905235106

View details for Web of Science ID 000269632400005

View details for PubMedID 19805247

El Nino-Southern Oscillation Impacts on Rice Production in Luzon, the Philippines JOURNAL OF APPLIED METEOROLOGY AND CLIMATOLOGY Roberts, M. G., Dawe, D., Falcon, W. P., Naylor, R. L. 2009; 48 (8): 1718-1724
Agriculture. Nutrient imbalances in agricultural development. Science Vitousek, P. M., Naylor, R., Crews, T., David, M. B., Drinkwater, L. E., Holland, E., Johnes, P. J., KATZENBERGER, J., Martinelli, L. A., Matson, P. A., Nziguheba, G., Ojima, D., Palm, C. A., Robertson, G. P., Sanchez, P. A., Townsend, A. R., Zhang, F. S. 2009; 324 (5934): 1519-1520

View details for DOI 10.1126/science.1170261

View details for PubMedID 19541981

Historical Warnings of Future Food Insecurity with Unprecedented Seasonal Heat SCIENCE Battisti, D. S., Naylor, R. L. 2009; 323 (5911): 240-244

Abstract

Higher growing season temperatures can have dramatic impacts on agricultural productivity, farm incomes, and food security. We used observational data and output from 23 global climate models to show a high probability (>90%) that growing season temperatures in the tropics and subtropics by the end of the 21st century will exceed the most extreme seasonal temperatures recorded from 1900 to 2006. In temperate regions, the hottest seasons on record will represent the future norm in many locations. We used historical examples to illustrate the magnitude of damage to food systems caused by extreme seasonal heat and show that these short-run events could become long-term trends without sufficient investments in adaptation.

View details for DOI 10.1126/science.1164363

View details for Web of Science ID 000262290600035

View details for PubMedID 19131626

Coping with climate risks in Indonesian rice agriculture: a policy perspective Handbook on Uncertainty and Environmental Decision Making Naylor, R., Mastrandrea, M. edited by Filer, J. A., Haurie, A. Springer . 2009
Downscaling Indonesia precipitation using large-scale meteorological fields International Journal of Climatology Vimont, D., Battisti, D., Naylor, R. 2009; 30 (11): 1706–1722

View details for DOI 10.1002/joc.2010

Managing food production systems for resilience Resilience-Based Management of Global Ecosystems Naylor, R. edited by Chapin et al Springer Verlag Press. 2009
Food security in an era of price volatility: decoding the devil in the details Program on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University Falcon, W., Naylor, R., Wang, K. 2009
Increasing wildfire in Alaska's boreal forest: Pathways to potential solutions of a wicked problem BIOSCIENCE Chapin, F. S., Trainor, S. F., Huntington, O., Lovecraft, A. L., Zavaleta, E., Natcher, D. C., McGuire, A. D., Nelson, J. L., Ray, L., Calef, M., Fresco, N., Huntington, H., Rupp, T. S., DeWilde, L., Naylor, R. L. 2008; 58 (6): 531-540

View details for DOI 10.1641/B580609

View details for Web of Science ID 000256569200009

Prioritizing climate change adaptation needs for food security in 2030 SCIENCE Lobell, D. B., Burke, M. B., Tebaldi, C., Mastrandrea, M. D., Falcon, W. P., Naylor, R. L. 2008; 319 (5863): 607-610

Abstract

Investments aimed at improving agricultural adaptation to climate change inevitably favor some crops and regions over others. An analysis of climate risks for crops in 12 food-insecure regions was conducted to identify adaptation priorities, based on statistical crop models and climate projections for 2030 from 20 general circulation models. Results indicate South Asia and Southern Africa as two regions that, without sufficient adaptation measures, will likely suffer negative impacts on several crops that are important to large food-insecure human populations. We also find that uncertainties vary widely by crop, and therefore priorities will depend on the risk attitudes of investment institutions.

View details for DOI 10.1126/science.1152339

View details for Web of Science ID 000252772000037

View details for PubMedID 18239122

Our Daily Bread: A Review of the Current World Food Crisis Boston Review Naylor, R., Falcon, W. 2008; September/October
Is it Africa’s turn? Boston Review (commentary: The global food crisis exposes the fragility of sub-Saharan economic progress Naylor, R. 2008; 33 (3)
When cars compete with people for food San Francisco Chronicle, Insight editorial Naylor, R. L., Falcon, W. P. 2008; May 18
International trade in meat: The tip of the pork chop AMBIO Galloway, J. N., Burke, M., Bradford, G. E., Naylor, R., Falcon, W., Chapagain, A. K., Gaskell, J. C., McCullough, E., Mooney, H. A., Oleson, K. L., Steinfeld, H., Wassenaar, T., Smil, V. 2007; 36 (8): 622-629

Abstract

This paper provides an original account of global land, water, and nitrogen use in support of industrialized livestock production and trade, with emphasis on two of the fastest-growing sectors, pork and poultry. Our analysis focuses on trade in feed and animal products, using a new model that calculates the amount of "virtual" nitrogen, water, and land used in production but not embedded in the product. We show how key meat-importing countries, such as Japan, benefit from "virtual" trade in land, water, and nitrogen, and how key meat-exporting countries, such as Brazil, provide these resources without accounting for their true environmental cost. Results show that Japan's pig and chicken meat imports embody the virtual equivalent of 50% of Japan's total arable land, and half of Japan's virtual nitrogen total is lost in the US. Trade links with China are responsible for 15% of the virtual nitrogen left behind in Brazil due to feed and meat exports, and 20% of Brazil's area is used to grow soybean exports. The complexity of trade in meat, feed, water, and nitrogen is illustrated by the dual roles of the US and The Netherlands as both importers and exporters of meat. Mitigation of environmental damage from industrialized livestock production and trade depends on a combination of direct-pricing strategies, regulatory approaches, and use of best management practices. Our analysis indicates that increased water- and nitrogen-use efficiency and land conservation resulting from these measures could significantly reduce resource costs.

View details for Web of Science ID 000251979900002

View details for PubMedID 18240675

The ripple effect: Biofuels, food security, and the environment ENVIRONMENT Naylor, R. L., Liska, A. J., Burke, M. B., Falcon, W. P., Gaskell, J. C., Rozelle, S. D., Cassman, K. G. 2007; 49 (9): 30-43
Assessing risks of climate variability and climate change for Indonesian rice agriculture PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Naylor, R. L., Battisti, D. S., Vimont, D. J., Falcon, W. P., Burke, M. B. 2007; 104 (19): 7752-7757

Abstract

El Niño events typically lead to delayed rainfall and decreased rice planting in Indonesia's main rice-growing regions, thus prolonging the hungry season and increasing the risk of annual rice deficits. Here we use a risk assessment framework to examine the potential impact of El Niño events and natural variability on rice agriculture in 2050 under conditions of climate change, with a focus on two main rice-producing areas: Java and Bali. We select a 30-day delay in monsoon onset as a threshold beyond which significant impact on the country's rice economy is likely to occur. To project the future probability of monsoon delay and changes in the annual cycle of rainfall, we use output from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change AR4 suite of climate models, forced by increasing greenhouse gases, and scale it to the regional level by using empirical downscaling models. Our results reveal a marked increase in the probability of a 30-day delay in monsoon onset in 2050, as a result of changes in the mean climate, from 9-18% today (depending on the region) to 30-40% at the upper tail of the distribution. Predictions of the annual cycle of precipitation suggest an increase in precipitation later in the crop year (April-June) of approximately 10% but a substantial decrease (up to 75% at the tail) in precipitation later in the dry season (July-September). These results indicate a need for adaptation strategies in Indonesian rice agriculture, including increased investments in water storage, drought-tolerant crops, crop diversification, and early warning systems.

View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.0701825104

View details for Web of Science ID 000246461500007

View details for PubMedID 17483453

The conservation of global crop genetic resources in the face of climate change Summary report from a Bellagio Conference, Food Security and the Environment Naylor et al., R. 2007
The role of policy in agricultural transition Agriculture, Development and the Environment in the Yaqui Valley (Mexico) Naylor, R. N., Falcon , W. P. edited by Matson, P. A., Falcon, W. P. Center for Environmental Science and Policy, Stanford University. 2007
Response of fishermen to aquaculture and the salmon crisis Globalization: Effects on Fisheries Resources Naylor. R.,, R., Eagle, J., and , J., W. Smith, W. edited by Taylor, W. W., Schechter, M., Wolfson, L. Cambridge University Press. 2007
Simulations of mixing and transport of dissolved waste discharged from an aquaculture pen Fifth International Symposium on Environmental Hydraulics Venayagamoorthy, S. K., Friinger, O. B., Koseff, J. R., Naylor, R. L. 2007
Directional changes in ecological communities and social-ecological systems: A framework for prediction based on Alaskan examples AMERICAN NATURALIST Chapin, F. S., Robards, M. D., Huntington, H. P., Johnstone, J. E., Trainor, S. E., Kofinas, G. P., Ruess, R. W., Fresco, N., Natcher, D. C., Naylor, R. L. 2006; 168 (6): S36-S49

Abstract

In this article we extend the theory of community prediction by presenting seven hypotheses for predicting community structure in a directionally changing world. The first three address well-studied community responses to environmental and ecological change: ecological communities are most likely to exhibit threshold changes in structure when perturbations cause large changes in limiting soil or sediment resources, dominant or keystone species, or attributes of disturbance regime that influence community recruitment. Four additional hypotheses address social-ecological interactions and apply to both ecological communities and social-ecological systems. Human responsiveness to short-term and local costs and benefits often leads to human actions with unintended long-term impacts, particularly those that are far from the site of decision making or are geographically dispersed. Policies are usually based on past conditions of ecosystem services rather than expected future trends. Finally, institutions that strengthen negative feedbacks between human actions and social-ecological consequences can reduce human impacts through more responsive (and thus more effective) management of public ecosystem services. Because of the large role that humans play in modifying ecosystems and ecosystem services, it is particularly important to test and improve social-ecological hypotheses as a basis for shaping appropriate policies for long-term ecosystem resilience.

View details for Web of Science ID 000242603400005

View details for PubMedID 17109327

Policy strategies to address sustainability of Alaskan boreal forests in response to a directionally changing climate PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Chapin, F. S., Lovecraft, A. L., Zavaleta, E. S., Nelson, J., Robards, M. D., Kofinas, G. P., Trainor, S. F., Peterson, G. D., Huntington, H. P., Naylor, R. L. 2006; 103 (45): 16637-16643

Abstract

Human activities are altering many factors that determine the fundamental properties of ecological and social systems. Is sustainability a realistic goal in a world in which many key process controls are directionally changing? To address this issue, we integrate several disparate sources of theory to address sustainability in directionally changing social-ecological systems, apply this framework to climate-warming impacts in Interior Alaska, and describe a suite of policy strategies that emerge from these analyses. Climate warming in Interior Alaska has profoundly affected factors that influence landscape processes (climate regulation and disturbance spread) and natural hazards, but has only indirectly influenced ecosystem goods such as food, water, and wood that receive most management attention. Warming has reduced cultural services provided by ecosystems, leading to some of the few institutional responses that directly address the causes of climate warming, e.g., indigenous initiatives to the Arctic Council. Four broad policy strategies emerge: (i) enhancing human adaptability through learning and innovation in the context of changes occurring at multiple scales; (ii) increasing resilience by strengthening negative (stabilizing) feedbacks that buffer the system from change and increasing options for adaptation through biological, cultural, and economic diversity; (iii) reducing vulnerability by strengthening institutions that link the high-latitude impacts of climate warming to their low-latitude causes; and (iv) facilitating transformation to new, potentially more beneficial states by taking advantage of opportunities created by crisis. Each strategy provides societal benefits, and we suggest that all of them be pursued simultaneously.

View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.0606955103

View details for Web of Science ID 000241969500005

View details for PubMedID 17008403

A case study of land reform and coastal land transformation in southern Sonora, Mexico LAND USE POLICY Luers, A. L., Naylor, R. L., Matson, P. A. 2006; 23 (4): 436-447
Offshore aquaculture legislation SCIENCE Naylor, R. 2006; 313 (5792): 1363-1363

View details for DOI 10.1126/science.1134023

View details for Web of Science ID 000240348700001

View details for PubMedID 16959976

Business strategies for conservation on private lands: Koa forestry as a case study PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Goldstein, J. H., Daily, G. C., Friday, J. B., Matson, P. A., Naylor, R. A. 2006; 103 (26): 10140-10145

Abstract

Innovative financial instruments are being created to reward conservation on private, working lands. Major design challenges remain, however, to make investments in biodiversity and ecosystem services economically attractive and commonplace. From a business perspective, three key financial barriers for advancing conservation land uses must frequently be addressed: high up-front costs, long time periods with no revenue, and high project risk due to long time horizons and uncertainty. We explored ways of overcoming these barriers on grazing lands in Hawaii by realizing a suite of timber and conservation revenue streams associated with their (partial) reforestation. We calculated the financial implications of alternative strategies, focusing on Acacia koa ("koa") forestry because of its high conservation and economic potential. Koa's timber value alone creates a viable investment (mean net present value = $453/acre), but its long time horizon and poor initial cash flow pose formidable challenges for landowners. At present, subsidy payments from a government conservation program targeting benefits for biodiversity, water quality, and soil erosion have the greatest potential to move landowners beyond the tipping point in favor of investments in koa forestry, particularly when combined with future timber harvest (mean net present value = $1,661/acre). Creating financial mechanisms to capture diverse ecosystem service values through time will broaden opportunities for conservation land uses. Governments, nongovernmental organizations, and private investors have roles to play in catalyzing this transition by developing new revenue streams that can reach a broad spectrum of landowners.

View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.0600391103

View details for Web of Science ID 000238872900070

View details for PubMedID 16782816

Stewardship principles for farming finfish in the sea Center for Environmental Science and Policy Series Naylor, R. N., Leonard, G., Goldman, J., Joy, N., Evans, S., Goldburg, R., Heggelund, P., Johnson, P., Kelso, D., MacLeod, N., O’Shea, T., Sims, N., Burke, M., Chiu, A., Gerhart, A. Stanford University. 2006
Environmental safeguards for open-ocean aquaculture National Academy of Sciences Issues in Science and Technology Naylor, R. 2006; Spring
Agriculture. Losing the links between livestock and land. Science Naylor, R., Steinfeld, H., Falcon, W., Galloway, J., Smil, V., Bradford, E., Alder, J., Mooney, H. 2005; 310 (5754): 1621-1622

View details for PubMedID 16339432

Unleashing the genius of the genome to feed the developing world Symposium on Current Issues in Agriculture Naylor, R., Manning, R. AMER PHILOSOPHICAL SOC. 2005: 515–28
Analysis of wheat yield and climatic trends in Mexico FIELD CROPS RESEARCH Lobell, D. B., Ortiz-Monasterio, J. I., Asner, G. P., Matson, P. A., Naylor, R. L., Falcon, W. P. 2005; 94 (2-3): 250-256
Future seascapes, fishing, and fish farming FRONTIERS IN ECOLOGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT Goldburg, R., Naylor, R. 2005; 3 (1): 21-28
Combining field surveys, remote sensing, and regression trees to understand yield variations in an irrigated wheat landscape AGRONOMY JOURNAL Lobell, D. B., Ortiz-Monasterio, J. I., Asner, G. P., Naylor, R. L., Falcon, W. P. 2005; 97 (1): 241-249
A tropical freshwater wetland: III. Direct use values and other goods and services Wetlands Ecology and Management Drew, W. M., Ewel, K. C., Naylor, R. L., Sigrah, A. 2005; 13 (6)
Aquaculture and ocean resources: raising tigers of the sea Annual Review of Environment and Resources Naylor, R., Burke, M. 2005; 30
Biodiversity and the regulation of ecosystem services Millennium Assessment of the World’s Ecosystems Diaz, S., , S., Tilman, D.,, D., Naylor (among contributing authors), R. L. Island Press. 2005
Fugitive salmon: Assessing risks from aquaculture escapes BioScience Naylor, R., Hindar, K., Fleming, I., Goldburg, R., Williams, S., Volpe, J., Whoriskey, F., Eagle, J., Kelso, D., Mangel, M. 2005; 55 (5)
Rethinking food security for the twenty-first century AMERICAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS Falcon, W. P., Naylor, R. L. 2005; 87 (5): 1113-1127
Using climate models to improve Indonesian food security BULLETIN OF INDONESIAN ECONOMIC STUDIES Falcon, W. P., Naylor, R. L., Smith, W. L., Burke, M. B., McCullough, E. B. 2004; 40 (3): 355-377
The role of genomics research in improvement of "orphan" crops Symposium on Genomics and Plant Breeding Nelson, R. J., Naylor, R. L., Jahn, M. M. CROP SCIENCE SOC AMER. 2004: 1901–4
Why farm salmon outcompete fishery salmon MARINE POLICY Eagle, J., Naylor, R., Smith, W. 2004; 28 (3): 259-270
Salmon farms and hatcheries ENVIRONMENT Naylor, R. L., Eagle, J., Smith, W. L. 2004; 46 (3): 45-45
Biotechnology in the developing world: a case for increased investments in orphan crops 6th International Conference of the International-Consortium-on-Agricultural-Biotechnology-Research Naylor, R. L., Falcon, W. P., Goodman, R. M., Jahn, M. M., Sengooba, T., Tefera, H., Nelson, R. J. ELSEVIER SCI LTD. 2004: 15–44
Threats to Aquatic Environments: Is Aquaculture a Solution? The ATSE Crawford Fund Conference Naylor, R. A., Brown, (ed.), G. 2004
Salmon aquaculture in the Pacific Northwest - A global industry ENVIRONMENT Naylor, R. L., Eagle, J., Smith, W. L. 2003; 45 (8): 18-?
Illustrating the coupled human-environment system for vulnerability analysis: Three case studies PROCEEDINGS OF THE NATIONAL ACADEMY OF SCIENCES OF THE UNITED STATES OF AMERICA Turner, B. L., Matson, P. A., McCarthy, J. J., Corell, R. W., Christensen, L., Eckley, N., Hovelsrud-Broda, G. K., Kasperson, J. X., Kasperson, R. E., Luers, A., Martello, M. L., Mathiesen, S., Naylor, R., Polsky, C., Pulsipher, A., Schiller, A., Selin, H., Tyler, N. 2003; 100 (14): 8080-8085

Abstract

The vulnerability framework of the Research and Assessment Systems for Sustainability Program explicitly recognizes the coupled human-environment system and accounts for interactions in the coupling affecting the system's responses to hazards and its vulnerability. This paper illustrates the usefulness of the vulnerability framework through three case studies: the tropical southern Yucatán, the arid Yaqui Valley of northwest Mexico, and the pan-Arctic. Together, these examples illustrate the role of external forces in reshaping the systems in question and their vulnerability to environmental hazards, as well as the different capacities of stakeholders, based on their access to social and biophysical capital, to respond to the changes and hazards. The framework proves useful in directing attention to the interacting parts of the coupled system and helps identify gaps in information and understanding relevant to reducing vulnerability in the systems as a whole.

View details for DOI 10.1073/pnas.1231334100

View details for Web of Science ID 000184222500010

View details for PubMedID 12815106

Agricultural sustainability and intensive production practices NATURE Tilman, D., Cassman, K. G., Matson, P. A., Naylor, R., Polasky, S. 2002; 418 (6898): 671-677

Abstract

A doubling in global food demand projected for the next 50 years poses huge challenges for the sustainability both of food production and of terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems and the services they provide to society. Agriculturalists are the principal managers of global usable lands and will shape, perhaps irreversibly, the surface of the Earth in the coming decades. New incentives and policies for ensuring the sustainability of agriculture and ecosystem services will be crucial if we are to meet the demands of improving yields without compromising environmental integrity or public health.

View details for DOI 10.1038/nature01014

View details for Web of Science ID 000177305600053

View details for PubMedID 12167873

Migration, markets, and mangrove resource use on Kosrae, Federated States of Micronesia AMBIO Naylor, R. L., Bonine, K. M., Ewel, K. C., Waguk, E. 2002; 31 (4): 340-350

Abstract

Kosrae, Federated States of Micronesia, is a prototype of an island economy prone to economic crowding. Average family size is large, the habitable land area is small, economic activity is limited, and household dependence on natural resources for fuel and food is high. We analyze how economic crowding--and its mitigation through trade and migration policies--affects mangrove resource use. A comparison of household survey data from 1996 and 2000 indicates that despite decreases in US aid and public-sector jobs, average household consumption of mangrove resources has not increased. Migration and remittances have allowed the purchase of imported fuel and building materials substituting for mangrove wood. Despite changing preferences and shifts toward import consumption, population growth and further declines in US financial support will likely cause aggregate demand for mangrove and upland wood to rise. Moreover, continued emigration may accelerate the export of mangrove crabs to off-island Kosraeans.

View details for Web of Science ID 000176989000012

View details for PubMedID 12174605

Policy implications of human-accelerated nitrogen cycling (Reprinted from Biogeochemistry, vol 52, pg 281-320, 2001) BIOGEOCHEMISTRY Mosier, A. R., Bleken, M. A., Chaiwanakupt, P., Ellis, E. C., Freney, J. R., Howarth, R. B., Matson, P. A., Minami, K., Naylor, R., Weeks, K. N., Zhu, Z. L. 2002; 57 (1): 477-516
Using El Nino - Southern oscillation climate data to improve food policy planning in Indonesia BULLETIN OF INDONESIAN ECONOMIC STUDIES Naylor, R., Falcon, W., Wada, N., Rochberg, D. 2002; 38 (1): 75-91
Integrating New Genetic Technologies Into Orphan-Crop Improvement in the Least Developed Countries 6th Annual Conference on Agricultural Biotechnologies: New Avenues for Production, Consumption, and Technology Transfer Naylor, R., Nelson, R., Falcon, W., Goodman, R., Jahn, M., Kalazich, J., Sengooba, T., Tefera, H. 2002
Ecology - Aquaculture - A gateway for exotic species SCIENCE Naylor, R. L., Williams, S. L., Strong, D. R. 2001; 294 (5547): 1655-1656

View details for Web of Science ID 000172307400020

View details for PubMedID 11721035

Using El Nino/Southern oscillation climate data to predict rice production in Indonesia CLIMATIC CHANGE Naylor, R. L., Falcon, W. P., Rochberg, D., Wada, N. 2001; 50 (3): 255-265
Policy implications of human-accelerated nitrogen cycling BIOGEOCHEMISTRY Mosier, A. R., Bleken, M. A., Chaiwanakupt, P., Ellis, E. C., Freney, J. R., Howarth, R. B., Matson, P. A., Minami, K., Naylor, R., Weeks, K. N., Zhu, Z. L. 2001; 52 (3): 281-320
Aquaculture: A net loss? Conservation Biology in Practice Naylor, R., Goldburg, R., Beveridge, M., Clay, J., Folke, C., Kautsky, N., Lubchenco, J., Mooney, H., Primavera, J., Troell, M. 2001; 2
Marine aquaculture in the United States: Environmental Impacts and Policy Options Goldburg, R. J., Elliot, M., Naylor, R. L. Pew Ocean Commission, Arlington, Virginia. 2001
Policy reforms and Mexican agriculture: views from the Yaqui Valley CIMMYT Economics Working Paper, Mexico D.F. Naylor, R., Falcon, W., Puente-Gonzalez, A. 2001
Effect of aquaculture on world fish supplies NATURE Naylor, R. L., Goldburg, R. J., Primavera, J. H., Kautsky, N., Beveridge, M. C., Clay, J., Folke, C., Lubchenco, J., Mooney, H., Troell, M. 2000; 405 (6790): 1017-1024

Abstract

Global production of farmed fish and shellfish has more than doubled in the past 15 years. Many people believe that such growth relieves pressure on ocean fisheries, but the opposite is true for some types of aquaculture. Farming carnivorous species requires large inputs of wild fish for feed. Some aquaculture systems also reduce wild fish supplies through habitat modification, wild seedstock collection and other ecological impacts. On balance, global aquaculture production still adds to world fish supplies; however, if the growing aquaculture industry is to sustain its contribution to world fish supplies, it must reduce wild fish inputs in feed and adopt more ecologically sound management practices.

View details for Web of Science ID 000087871700035

View details for PubMedID 10890435

Consequences of changing biodiversity NATURE Chapin, F. S., Zavaleta, E. S., Eviner, V. T., Naylor, R. L., Vitousek, P. M., Reynolds, H. L., Hooper, D. U., Lavorel, S., Sala, O. E., Hobbie, S. E., Mack, M. C., Diaz, S. 2000; 405 (6783): 234-242

Abstract

Human alteration of the global environment has triggered the sixth major extinction event in the history of life and caused widespread changes in the global distribution of organisms. These changes in biodiversity alter ecosystem processes and change the resilience of ecosystems to environmental change. This has profound consequences for services that humans derive from ecosystems. The large ecological and societal consequences of changing biodiversity should be minimized to preserve options for future solutions to global environmental problems.

View details for Web of Science ID 000087080100061

View details for PubMedID 10821284

Agriculture and global change Earth Systems: Processes and Issues Naylor, R. edited by Ernst, G. Cambridge University Press. 2000
The economics of alien species invasions Invasive Species in a Changing World, Naylor, R. L. , R. L. edited by Mooney, H., Hobbs, R. Island Press. 2000
The maize transition in Asia: Unlocking the controversy Annual Meeting of the American-Agricultural-Economics-Association Falcon, W. P., Naylor, R. L. OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC. 1998: 960–68
Ecology - Nature's subsidies to shrimp and salmon farming SCIENCE Naylor, R. L., Goldburg, R. J., Mooney, H., Beveridge, M., Clay, J., Folke, C., Kautsky, N., Lubchenco, J., Primavera, J., Williams, M. 1998; 282 (5390): 883-884
Integration of environmental, agronomic, and economic aspects of fertilizer management SCIENCE Matson, P. A., Naylor, R., Ortiz-Monasterio, I. 1998; 280 (5360): 112-115
Valuing Mangrove Resources in Kosrae, Micronesia Environment and Development Economics Naylor, R. L., Drew, W. M. 1998 ; 3.4
Variability and growth in grain yields, 1950-94: Does the record point to greater instability? POPULATION AND DEVELOPMENT REVIEW Naylor, R., Falcon, W., Zavaleta, E. 1997; 23 (1): 41-?
Herbicide Strategies for Asian Rice Systems Herbicides in Asian Rice: Transitions in Weed Management Naylor, R., Falcon, W., Kennedy, D. edited by Naylor, R. L. International Rice Research Institute Publications, Los Banos, The Philippines. 1997
Herbicides in Asian Rice Production: Perspectives from Economics, Ecology, and the Agricultural Sciences Herbicides in Asian Rice: Transitions in Weed Management Naylor, R. L. edited by Naylor, R. L. International Rice Research Institute Publications, Los Banos, The Philippines. 1997
The Value of Natural Pest Control Services in Agriculture Ecosystem Services Naylor, R., Ehrlich, P. edited by Daily, G. Island Press. 1997
Invasions in agriculture: Assessing the cost of the golden apple snail in Asia AMBIO Naylor, R. 1996; 25 (7): 443-448
Energy and resource constraints on intensive agricultural production ANNUAL REVIEW OF ENERGY AND THE ENVIRONMENT Naylor, R. L. 1996; 21: 99-123
Is the locus of poverty changing? FOOD POLICY Naylor, R. L., Falcon, W. P. 1995; 20 (6): 501-518
CULTURE AND AGRICULTURE - EMPLOYMENT PRACTICES AFFECTING WOMEN IN JAVA RICE ECONOMY ECONOMIC DEVELOPMENT AND CULTURAL CHANGE Naylor, R. 1994; 42 (3): 509-535
HERBICIDE USE IN ASIAN RICE PRODUCTION WORLD DEVELOPMENT Naylor, R. 1994; 22 (1): 55-70
DEVELOPING AN INTEGRATED APPROACH FOOD POLICY Naylor, R., Matson, P. 1993; 18 (3): 249-251
LABOR-SAVING TECHNOLOGIES IN THE JAVANESE RICE ECONOMY - RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AND A LOOK INTO THE 1990S (VOL 28, PG 85, 1992) BULLETIN OF INDONESIAN ECONOMIC STUDIES Naylor, R. 1993; 29 (1): U1-U1
REAL WAGES AND INSTITUTIONAL CHANGE - WOMENS WELFARE IN THE JAVANESE RICE ECONOMY FOOD POLICY Naylor, R. 1993; 18 (1): 73-78
Food, Conservation, and Global Environmental Change: Is Compromise Possible? EOS Transactions Naylor, R., Matson, P. 1993; 74 (15)
LABOR-SAVING TECHNOLOGIES IN THE JAVANESE RICE ECONOMY - RECENT DEVELOPMENTS AND A LOOK INTO THE 1990S BULLETIN OF INDONESIAN ECONOMIC STUDIES Naylor, R. 1992; 28 (3): 71-91
Equity Effects of Alternative Rice Policies Rice Policies in Indonesia Naylor, R. edited by Pearson et al Cornell University Press. 1991
The Rural Labor Market in Indonesia Rice Policies in Indonesia Naylor, R. edited by Pearson et al Cornell University Press. 1991
Recent Policy Influences on Rice Production Rice Policies in Indonesia Pearson, S., Naylor, R., Falconed , W. edited by Pearson et al Cornell University Press. 1991
WAGE TRENDS IN RICE PRODUCTION ON JAVA - 1976-1988 BULLETIN OF INDONESIAN ECONOMIC STUDIES Naylor, R. 1990; 26 (2): 133-156
Youth Unemployment and the Minimum Wage Annals of Regional Science Naylor (then Lee), R., Lillydahl, J., Singell, L. 1981